9 months after a tentative start last September, and with 45 posts clocked up here at Oil Shock Horror Probe, I thought it was time to re-cap. What are the trends and themes that have emerged so far?
It's the economy stupid
Higher oil prices are already negatively impacting our economy
- $2 billion sliced off New Zealand's GDP
- $1 billion in spending power lost to New Zealand households already
- reports confirmed substantial negative effects on GDP and are causing much higher inflation
- an ongoing reduction of just 7-10% in fuel supply will shrink New Zealand's economy by $115 billion in five years
Our oil import dependency puts New Zealand at huge risk
- we import 97% of our oil
- shrinking domestic oil production is exported
- reports from Ministry of Economic Development, Venture Taranaki, and the International Energy Agency all confirm New Zealand domestic oil production has peaked and will decline sharply
- this will leave New Zealand even more vulnerable to oil shocks
- "yet to be discovered" oil offshore and coal to liquids is at best a 7 - 10 years away, there are huge environmental and economic downsides and they will not solve our current liquid fuel crisis
- comprehensive plans to lower our oil dependency have been ignored
Evidence of peak oil is overwhelming
- IEA confirmed conventional oil peaked in 2006 and pushes for urgent government intervention
- IMF warns of oil scarcity and end of "growth"
- New Zealand Parliament Report warns of imminent oil shock
- US and German military warn of serious consequences of looming oil supply shortages
- UK government develops Oil Shock Response plan and President Obama mandates fuel conservation measures
- traffic volumes in New Zealand are falling
But New Zealand government has ears, eyes and lips firmly closed
- has no oil shock plan
- believes "leaving it to the market" will solve the fuel crisis
- ignores negative impact of oil shock and peak oil in its Budget, Energy Strategy, transport planning, and Defence White Paper
- relies on oil price forecasts which are always wrong
NZ Media also ignores peak oil
in spite of widespread coverage of peak oil in overseas media, in a must watch Australian TV documentary , the New Zealand media continues to ignore peak oil (with a few notable exceptions)
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